I have been rolling the same thoughts on the future of desktop PC and SoC evolution for some years. Looking at the console convergence on CPU and GPU integration and performance scaling already charted the path to a possible alternative. Then Apple just broke new ground with their M-series products. The SoC concept is no longer just a slow and skimpy solution for mobile and SOHO platforms. With the pricing crisis affecting the traditional PC component market, the small form factor with powerful SoC offerings will be tempting many (non-enthusiast) customers to ditch the age old ATX platform for a more discrete box. Big towers will still be around for workstation and boutique niche clients of course... with the appropriate price premium. I just hope the ThunderBolt interface becomes a standard feature for external GPU option in those cases when we need to scratch that benchmarking score ego. 😅
You may be right about the basic direction. Further SoC integration could indeed enable more capable systems to fit into more compact footprints for those who want them. And yeah, past moves toward further integration inside the PC haven't taken us completely away from modularity and standards for system building. ATX cases have been around for a very long time. They probably will continue to be an option. I hope GPU-SoC integration at larger scale doesn't ruin things on this front. Physics is still a consideration, since larger case volumes are required for capable and quiet cooling. A big SoC might be right at home in a mATX or larger case, even if it enables smaller enclosures to work well, too.
Hey Scott, I get where you're coming from and mostly agree.
The one thing that I think you might have missed, is I think AMD and Nvidia have intentionally gimped their little SoC boxes. If they perform too well, it might dissuade people from buying the big iron. After all, if two or four of those DGX Sparks with a theoretical GeForce RTX 5070's worth of bandwidth can run enormous models at acceptable speeds for a small company with 15-20 users, it could hurt the datacenter rollout. It feels like they were purpose-designed to be proof of concept machines you'd use to test your models on and then push them into the really big cloud environments where they can lease you GPU time forever and ever, amen.
I do agree that big SoC systems with actual passable performance could very well take over for many workloads. Nvidia seems to be giving a passing nod to their gaming roots with RTX Spark systems, even if it's just the same GB10 chip in a smaller thermal footprint so it works in laptops.
I kinda wouldn't mind a world where these big SoCs can work in tandem with PCIe add-in GPUs as well. I don't want these systems to be as small as possible and louder than PCs with equivalent power draw like they tend to be.
I think you’re right about Nvidia holding back on the GB10’s spec to protect its data center products. My basic read on that going forward is that competition will likely force their hand eventually. Somebody else will step up and beat them if they don’t build the right thing.
Also, given the size and bandwidth in the latest DC parts and their apparent trajectory, there may be plenty of room for the workstation/consumer/edge stuff to grow in the future without becoming a problem for the DC offerings.
But there will have to be some demand for the big-SOC products to force the issue a bit.
Who would have imagined that Apple would be one of the big trailblazers into this new design space? I’d love to see hardware and packaging similar to my M4 mini, with the openness of the rest of the PC world. In the meantime my desktops are still huge and my Macs run macOS, and I’m okay with both.
If desktops and SFF/minipcs converge, what will happen with the server market? Will they follow architecturally, if not in physical form factor? The first and second gen Grace Hopper systems seemed to show the way. One highly integrated board with lots of integrated functionality in a smaller number of chips, swimming around inside a standard sized rackmount case, wasted space on every side. Hopefully someone thinks of something clever to do with that space too. Blade chassis coming back? The energy/thermal density would be terrifying.
I have been rolling the same thoughts on the future of desktop PC and SoC evolution for some years. Looking at the console convergence on CPU and GPU integration and performance scaling already charted the path to a possible alternative. Then Apple just broke new ground with their M-series products. The SoC concept is no longer just a slow and skimpy solution for mobile and SOHO platforms. With the pricing crisis affecting the traditional PC component market, the small form factor with powerful SoC offerings will be tempting many (non-enthusiast) customers to ditch the age old ATX platform for a more discrete box. Big towers will still be around for workstation and boutique niche clients of course... with the appropriate price premium. I just hope the ThunderBolt interface becomes a standard feature for external GPU option in those cases when we need to scratch that benchmarking score ego. 😅
You may be right about the basic direction. Further SoC integration could indeed enable more capable systems to fit into more compact footprints for those who want them. And yeah, past moves toward further integration inside the PC haven't taken us completely away from modularity and standards for system building. ATX cases have been around for a very long time. They probably will continue to be an option. I hope GPU-SoC integration at larger scale doesn't ruin things on this front. Physics is still a consideration, since larger case volumes are required for capable and quiet cooling. A big SoC might be right at home in a mATX or larger case, even if it enables smaller enclosures to work well, too.
Hey Scott, I get where you're coming from and mostly agree.
The one thing that I think you might have missed, is I think AMD and Nvidia have intentionally gimped their little SoC boxes. If they perform too well, it might dissuade people from buying the big iron. After all, if two or four of those DGX Sparks with a theoretical GeForce RTX 5070's worth of bandwidth can run enormous models at acceptable speeds for a small company with 15-20 users, it could hurt the datacenter rollout. It feels like they were purpose-designed to be proof of concept machines you'd use to test your models on and then push them into the really big cloud environments where they can lease you GPU time forever and ever, amen.
I do agree that big SoC systems with actual passable performance could very well take over for many workloads. Nvidia seems to be giving a passing nod to their gaming roots with RTX Spark systems, even if it's just the same GB10 chip in a smaller thermal footprint so it works in laptops.
I kinda wouldn't mind a world where these big SoCs can work in tandem with PCIe add-in GPUs as well. I don't want these systems to be as small as possible and louder than PCs with equivalent power draw like they tend to be.
I think you’re right about Nvidia holding back on the GB10’s spec to protect its data center products. My basic read on that going forward is that competition will likely force their hand eventually. Somebody else will step up and beat them if they don’t build the right thing.
Also, given the size and bandwidth in the latest DC parts and their apparent trajectory, there may be plenty of room for the workstation/consumer/edge stuff to grow in the future without becoming a problem for the DC offerings.
But there will have to be some demand for the big-SOC products to force the issue a bit.
So what I'm hearing is that AMD started aging its fine wine a little too early and for the wrong demographic?
Who would have imagined that Apple would be one of the big trailblazers into this new design space? I’d love to see hardware and packaging similar to my M4 mini, with the openness of the rest of the PC world. In the meantime my desktops are still huge and my Macs run macOS, and I’m okay with both.
If desktops and SFF/minipcs converge, what will happen with the server market? Will they follow architecturally, if not in physical form factor? The first and second gen Grace Hopper systems seemed to show the way. One highly integrated board with lots of integrated functionality in a smaller number of chips, swimming around inside a standard sized rackmount case, wasted space on every side. Hopefully someone thinks of something clever to do with that space too. Blade chassis coming back? The energy/thermal density would be terrifying.
Thanks for the food for thought!